Property prices wiggling a little bit

Trumpet, fanfare, front page splash, property prices are dropping. Or, to be precise (which of course the Press isn't), the median local market price dropped this quarter compared to last.

So, is this the bubble bursting, or just an excuse for the usual hysterics?

Let's forget for the moment that comparing the houses sold one quarter with those sold in the following quarter is not comparing like with like (after all, they are different houses).

Let's forget that the average conveyance value only reflects the value of houses which are actually changing hands.

Let's forget that the median price always tends to be a round number - by the nature of medians, one extra property sale either side of the median could cause the 'average' price to leap £5,000 (or, er, 1.7%...)

Let's forget all that. The answer to the question is on page 2 of the report in question. Over the six years since 2001, the median local market price has fallen seven times. This quarter it has fallen a mere 1.7%, but in Q1 2002 it fell by 11.1%, and it fell by 7.1% over two quarters in 2005. All during six years of relentlessly rising prices.

So the last six times the quarterly median fell, it was just a statistical wiggle each time. But for the Press, this is it, this 1.7% is the tip of the iceberg, time for the sub-editors to get out the big fat hysterical headline pen. Maybe it's a quiet news day...